We’re just beginning June so our inventory numbers will change throughout the month. But the real estate statistics for Berkeley County, West Virginia show an increase in June/May 2020, compared to June 2019. Typically June is higher than May in both the number of listings and average listing price, so this gives us hope that our market will continue to increase despite all of the upheaval in our lives this past quarter. Average listings prices have increased from June 2019 to May 2020 by approximately 13%.
Since these numbers were pulled June 1, we expect to see a steady increase in listings in June. We’ll post and update mid-month to see if we are on track with positive news in the market. What we can see is a huge difference in inventory numbers compared to last year by about 45%. Even though the list prices are up by approximately 11%, the demand is high because inventory is so low. Typically that would mean that demand is driving up prices without a lot of validation, but that’s not the case. Please see the national recap report from CoreLogic below this chart. West Virginia is undervalued. The good news about that is it means the prices will stay strong and steady, despite the increased demand. Inventory is down, but with all of the unemployment, the number of buyers is proportionately down for now until people get back to work.
A nationwide real estate market recap for April 2020 from CoreLogic:
Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 5.4% in April 2020 compared with April 2019 and increased month over month by 1.4% in April 2020 compared with March 2020 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results).
Forecast Prices Nationally
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase on a month-over-month basis by 0.3% from April 2020 to May 2020, and decline 1.3% on a year-over-year basis from April 2020 to April 2021. 2021 will mark the first year home prices are expected to decline in more than nine years.
Home-purchase activity slowed over March and April compared to last year as shelter-in-place orders, and an unprecedented spike in unemployment dented home-buying activity fueled by millennials. Nationally, the for-sale inventory of entry-level homes plummeted on average 25% in April. Should this trend continue, we may see an adverse effect on home sales in the near term.
Markets to Watch: Top Markets at Risk of Home Price Decline
The Market Risk Indicator (MRI), a monthly update of the overall health of housing markets across the country, predicts a very high probability (above 60%) of a decline in home prices in Prescott, Arizona; Huntington, West Virginia; Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Florida and College Station-Bryan, Texas, over the next 12 months. It also predicts a moderate probability of a price decline (40-60%) in North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, Florida. Huntington, West Virginia, was hit
According to the CoreLogic Market Condition Indicators (MCI), an analysis of housing values in the country’s 50 largest metropolitan areas based on housing stock, 40% of metropolitan areas had an overvalued housing market in April 2020, while 18% were undervalued and 42% were at value.